Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.863629 2.476586 3.312691 4.567613 6.459841e+00 9.304852e+00 14.109780
2024-12-22 1.312415 1.996720 3.111400 5.177169 9.210788e+00 1.751264e+01 38.554500
2024-12-29 0.992134 1.690619 3.018255 6.015351 1.363863e+01 3.613272e+01 135.023031
2025-01-05 0.762834 1.431957 2.889558 6.855053 2.011921e+01 8.004434e+01 680.657585
2025-01-12 0.556300 1.121906 2.489164 6.815931 2.525228e+01 1.539450e+02 4311.040146
2025-01-19 0.406197 0.866215 2.074421 6.413372 2.942512e+01 2.829369e+02 59545.099953
2025-01-26 0.324312 0.734038 1.912122 6.801576 4.083248e+01 7.823418e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 0.277000 0.668188 1.910375 8.005970 6.814356e+01 4.279793e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.243864 0.626433 1.969962 9.866186 1.292485e+02 8.826872e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 0.206997 0.557257 1.885719 10.918878 2.134796e+02 5.171068e+07 NaN
2025-02-23 0.170227 0.472807 1.681921 10.797139 2.901007e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.139179 0.395319 1.458359 10.115441 3.525153e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.121501 0.359365 1.417676 11.403884 6.961989e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.106083 0.325179 1.362956 12.616425 1.444069e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.094389 0.300152 1.340723 14.486546 3.865870e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.084010 0.275970 1.305774 16.340684 1.220523e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.071802 0.239556 1.165573 15.702313 2.228623e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.060851 0.204748 1.011634 14.203138 3.040487e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054242 0.186330 0.956196 14.899945 1.140362e+05 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050326 0.178253 0.968381 17.766762 4.266816e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047493 0.173997 1.007944 22.460268 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043546 0.162989 0.984100 25.015228 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038880 0.146890 0.903267 24.376634 NaN NaN NaN